Everyday & Big Purchases

Holiday Surveys Show Smaller Gift Budgets and Pressure to Borrow

By Marcus Delgado / October 30, 2026 / Updated November 8, 2026

Sale shopping bags and a miniature cart holding a ribbon-wrapped gift card

The headline numbers: $879 average planned gift spending (down 21% from $1,107 last year) in NerdWallet’s 2026 survey, 51% feeling pressure to spend more than they can comfortably afford in DealAid’s survey, and a 4% rise in average household holiday spending in Deloitte’s. Three surveys, three different moods. As of 8 November 2026, the honest summary is that planned gift budgets look tighter in some polls and looser in others, borrowing is part of the plan for a sizeable minority, and nobody has measured what people actually spent yet. Here is who asked whom, and how much weight each number can carry.

Key takeaways

NerdWallet (The Harris Poll) reports a $879 average planned gift budget, down 21% from $1,107. DealAid reports that 51% feel pressure to overspend and 28% expect holiday debt.
DealAid’s 1,010 respondents come from an opt-in online panel and are unweighted. Treat its percentages as a snapshot of that panel, not of all Americans.
Deloitte’s 4,000-person survey and the National Retail Federation’s forecast both point up, not down: $1,654 per household (+4%) and $1.013 trillion in November and December sales (+4.2%).
These measure different things (gifts only, all holiday spending, or total retail sales), so they do not contradict each other as neatly as the headlines suggest.
None of them is a report of completed sales. They are plans and forecasts.

Who ran these surveys, and how

A survey number is only as good as its sample. Here is what I could confirm from pages I opened.

Source	Type	Sample and method	Date
NerdWallet 2026 Holiday Spending Report	Consumer survey	Conducted online by The Harris Poll. Sample size and fieldwork dates not verified (the full report page blocked my fetch)	Not verified; news coverage dated 3 November
DealAid holiday shopping survey	Consumer survey	1,010 U.S. adults; opt-in online panel via Zoho Survey; unweighted	Fielded 19 to 21 October; published 22 October
Deloitte 2026 Holiday Retail Survey	Consumer survey	4,000 U.S. consumers; independent online panel; nationally representative; margin of error plus or minus 2 points	Fielded 26 August to 10 September; released 15 October
National Retail Federation forecast	Economic model, not a survey	Built on spending, income, jobs, wages, inflation and past retail sales	Released 15 October

What shoppers say about budgets and borrowing

NerdWallet: smaller gift budgets

NerdWallet says people planning to buy gifts expect to spend $879 on average, down 21% from $1,107 in 2025. The drop checks out arithmetically: $228 on $1,107 is about 21%. Total planned holiday spending (gifts, travel and other expenses) averages $2,525 among holiday spenders. Of those spenders, 74% expect to use a credit card and 38% expect to use buy now, pay later. About 38% of the buy now, pay later users expect they will not pay in full and on time, against 25% of credit card users. On 3 November, a local-news story out of InvestigateTV quoted NerdWallet’s Kim Palmer attributing the pullback to inflation and cutting travel, and warning that instalment plans are still debt.

An earlier version of this article also cited shares planning to use coupons (42%) and shop sales (41%) and a 27% overspending-on-deals figure. I could not open the NerdWallet page that holds them, so I have dropped them.

DealAid: pressure and debt

DealAid describes itself as a shopping, coupon and nonprofit-giving site, so it has a stake in deal-hunting stories. Its survey found 51% agreed they feel pressure to spend more than they can comfortably afford (20% strongly). Another 28% expect to take on debt for this year’s holidays and 20% are unsure, while 22% are still paying off 2025 purchases. Combined, 38% fall into either group. That is not 50%, because many people are in both.

On direction of spending, 45% plan to spend more than in 2025, 21% about the same and 31% less. The split by income is stark: among households under $50,000, 37% plan more and 43% plan less; at $50,000 and over, 53% plan more and 17% less. Buy now, pay later is on the list for 14%.

The sample skews. By DealAid’s own breakdown it is 58% women, a third aged 18 to 29, only 5% aged 62 or older, and half under $50,000 in household income. That leans younger and lower-income than the U.S. adult population, which may push the pressure and debt numbers up. DealAid itself says its margin-of-error benchmark does not capture the uncertainty in an opt-in panel.

What the bigger sample and the forecast say

Deloitte’s survey, released 15 October, puts average household holiday spending at $1,654, up 4% from $1,595. Retail goods are about $988 (up 10%) and holiday activities about $666 (down 4%). Deloitte says 38% of shoppers are “value seekers” who use promotions and rewards, yet expect to spend about 12% more than others. It also found 28% expect their budgets to be used up by the end of October, the highest share in six years. Households earning $200,000 or more expect about $3,607 against about $693 for those under $50,000.

The National Retail Federation, a retail trade group, forecast on 15 October that November and December retail sales will rise 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, against $972 billion last year. It excludes car dealers, gas stations and restaurants. It expects 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal hires, versus about 356,000 last year, and said retailers’ measured approach to hiring reflects gas prices, inflation, interest rates and elevated consumer debt. Its chief economist said inflation and household strain will land differently across income groups.

Why the numbers disagree, and how to read them

NerdWallet’s $2,525 and Deloitte’s $1,654 are both “average holiday spending” and sit $871 apart. One counts gifts, travel and more among spenders; the other averages households. The 21% fall in planned gift budgets can sit beside a 4.2% rise in total sales, because a forecast total is built from economic data on all shoppers, while a survey average reflects who answered and what was asked. The Deloitte income gap and DealAid’s income split point the same way: the pressure is not evenly shared.

Checklist for reading any holiday survey:

Who ran it, and do they sell something related to the answer?
How were people chosen: probability sample, or an opt-in online panel?
Is it weighted to match the population, and what is the margin of error?
What is the base: all adults, shoppers, or people planning to buy gifts?
Does it measure plans, or sales that have happened?
When was it fielded, and has anything big changed since?

Frequently asked questions

Are Americans spending less this holiday season?

Not clearly. NerdWallet shows lower planned gift budgets, Deloitte and NRF show higher totals, and DealAid shows more people planning to spend more than less. Actual results will come from sales data after the season.

Is the 21% drop the same as a 21% cut in sales?

No. It compares average planned gift budgets between two surveys. Sales are a separate measure.

Can I trust the DealAid numbers?

They are a real count of a particular panel, but the panel is unweighted and skews young and lower-income, so you cannot read the percentages as the national figure.

Does buy now, pay later count as debt?

NerdWallet’s Palmer described it as debt that has to be repaid. Terms vary by provider, so read the fine print.

Before you decide

If you are setting a holiday budget, a survey average is a poor target. Your own numbers matter more: what you can pay in cash by 31 December, and what is left on any balance. This article cannot tell you how much to spend or whether to borrow. If debt is already a worry, a nonprofit credit counselor can look at your actual situation. Check back after the season for measured sales, which will say more than any of these polls.